If the carbon tax is introduced in 2022, the losses of the Russian companies could reach as high as EUR 50.6 billion by 2030.
Fuel and energy products constitute most of Russia's exports. According to the Federal Customs Service, fuel and energy products accounted for 49.6% of Russia's exports in 2020. The European Union accounted for 38.5% of Russia's trade turnover (41.6% in 2019). EU is Russia's largest trade partner.
According to KPMG forecasts, if the carbon tax is introduced in 2025 and charged to only direct emissions of greenhouse gases (emitted directly during the manufacture of products), the load for Russian exporters will amount to EUR 33.3 billion in 2025-2030.
If the tax is introduced in 2022 and be made applicable to both direct and indirect emissions of CO2(emitted by unassociated third parties), the losses will amount to EUR 50.6 billion by 2030.
The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) agrees with these assessments. They calculate that the EU decision could cost annually at least $3-4.8 billion for Russian companies.